Hotel Mars with Doug Messier, John Batchelor, Dr. David Livingston, May 27, 2026, 4542
The meeting reviewed recent progress and plans for the Earth-Moon system, focusing on SpaceX’s Starship 12 mission, which was mostly successful despite engine failures and issues with controlled splashdowns for both stages. Doug Messier discussed ongoing challenges for Starship, including full reusability and orbital refueling, and noted NASA’s reliance on Starship for Artemis III. The conversation covered Blue Origin’s recent NASA contracts for lunar landers and rovers, as well as Firefly Aerospace’s hopper mission to survey the lunar south pole for future base sites. The group discussed NASA’s phased plan for building a moon base, with initial robotic missions leading up to crewed landings and eventually a permanent presence. Participants expressed both optimism about technical progress and caution about the ambitious timelines and risks involved with new companies and unproven systems.
The three of us discussed SpaceX’s recent Starship 12 mission, which was mostly successful with the upper stage entering a suborbital orbit and deploying satellites, though the Super Heavy first stage had engine issues and crashed into the Gulf. Doug noted that while progress is being made, the timeline for NASA’s Artemis program is becoming tighter, with the Artemis III mission planned for next year requiring the Starship and Blue Moon landers to be close to final configuration. The discussion highlighted that future missions will need to achieve full reusability and develop orbital fuel depots for lunar missions in 2028.
Doug discussed NASA’s requirement for uncrewed lunar landings before sending astronauts to the moon. He provided an update on SpaceX’s 13th flight, noting that engineers are analyzing data from the previous flight and the FAA is reviewing an anomaly where the super heavy did not land as planned in the Gulf. David also shared that NASA selected Blue Origin over SpaceX for a Moon-based mission, including contracts for landing a crewed lander and two rovers in 2028, with each rover contract valued at approximately $238 million. Doug expressed uncertainty about Blue Origin’s ability to meet the aggressive timeline, though he acknowledged their ground testing has progressed n
We talked about NASA’s upcoming Artemis III mission announcement on June 9th, which will provide updates on lunar landing vehicles and crew selection. Doug explained that Blue Origin has contracts for rovers and Firefly Aerospace has a contract for four hoppers that JPL is developing to be deployed around Shackleton Crater at the Moon’s South Pole. The hoppers will conduct high-resolution imaging and help determine the size and configuration of a future moon base, with the goal of establishing a permanent base around 2032.
The Hotel Mars group discussed NASA’s Moon-Based Phased Implementation plan, which involves multiple phases of lunar landings and equipment delivery to build a permanent moon base by 2022-2023. They mentioned three planned missions later this year with Blue Origin, S-Robotic, and Intuitive Machines. Doug explained that Blue Origin is working on Block 2 Version 2, which will be capable of supporting four people on the moon’s surface for 30 days.
Doug mentioned the timeline for establishing a Moonbase, outlining three phases: initial habitat and equipment delivery (Phase 1), more intense operations (Phase 2), and a permanent base (Phase 3). He explained that while the human program depends on when private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are ready to carry astronauts to the lunar surface, significant testing and development are needed in the next few years, including docked operations with the Orion spacecraft and test landings. Skepticism was expressed about meeting the 2027-2028 timeline for human landings, citing risks due to the young and relatively unproven nature of the companies involved.
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Upcoming Programs:
Broadcast 4579 Zoom: Amir Notea, Shar Bahiri, Fred Simon | Friday 21 Aug 2026 930AM PT
Guests: Amir Notea, Shar Bahiri, Fred Simon
Zoom: Our guests discuss the Israeli company Moonshot.space and more
Broadcast 450 Zoom: Open Lines Discussion | Sunday 23 Aug 2026 1200PM PT
Guests: Dr. David Livingston
Zoom: Open Lines Discussion. Join us if you can.
